Populationgrowth

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Pretty interesting topic isnt it, just to make people more aware of it im gonna show a few numbers here hope youre affraid of them. Numbers are taken from Wikipedia search for jorden, tellus or terra. It takes 41 years for us humans to double our population.


Year / Number of humans on planet earth

2008 / 6639000000
2049 / 13278000000
2090 / 26556000000
2131 / 53112000000
2172 / 106224000000
2213 / 212448000000
2254 / 424896000000
2295 / 849792000000
2336 / 1699584000000
2377 / 3399168000000
2418 / 6.798.336.000.000


So 410 years later with the current growth we have we will be 6.798.336.000.000 humans do anyone belive that? 410 years isnt far away. Now you say ofcourse we will never become that many humans so my question will be, why wont we? If anyone has some answers to that feel free to tell me.


Al George or whats that greenpeace guy called again, the guy thats so affraid that we create too much polution? If anyone agree with him then take a look at this now.


2008 / 100% pollution
2049 / -50%
2090 / -50%
2131 / -50%
2172 / -50%
2213 / -50%
2254 / -50%
2295 / -50%
2336 / -50%
2377 / -50%
2418 / -50%

Every 41 year we have to lower our pollution / human with 50% to keep the current level of pollution. That gives us the following number ...

0,09765625% So if we manage to only release 0.01% of todays pollution for every human in 410 years from now we can keep today pollution levels. Isnt this great can we do that? No you cant!!!


So somewhere, we have to regulate our population and the whole world including Africa, India, China and our self ofcourse. When will that be? At the moment I doubt theres a plan that goes into the future to protect human to overpopulate them self. Will it be legal forever to make as many children as you please? At the moment it is.


So do we have any solutions to this problem, if we all can agree that it is a problem. Will it help if Madonna go to Afrika and bring home another kid? Will it help if we get better medecines? Will it help if we send food to Afrika? Or help countries in need like Thailand when the Tsunami hit them?

From every human aspect everything we consider to be good, is bad in the long term. What we consider to be bad, is good. Unless our goal is to keep growing untill the bouble crack. So who will be allowed to live in the future and how do we decide that. Can we decide it through a global community in peace? Sounds nice but not very likley.




Lets take one more example with these numbers again but this time we only look at, Sweden and its growth. We are 9.250.000 Swedes about the same size as New york i think. We have a very low growth even a negative childbirth but we got lots of immigrants so the population here growth with only 70.000 humans every year. To double the population would take 132 years then.


Year / Number of Swedes in Sweden

2008 / 9.250.000
2140 / 18500000 (somewhere around here there is more muslims then swedes living in Sweden)
2274 / 37000000
2404 / 74000000
2536 / 148000000
2668 / 296000000
2800 / 592000000
2932 / 1184000000
3064 / 2368000000
3196 / 4736000000
3328 / 9472000000

So with our low populationgrowthrate it takes whole 1320 years untill we reach 9.472.000.000 Swedes in Sweden. By then I assume NewYork is even larger due a higher birthrate.



This would only happen if the CURRENT birthrate keeps on going it can change. And how and why it would change, think about it for a while.


Hope I made someone affraid, bye. =)

[rev]

I sincerely doubt it will take us 410 years to destroy the planet. We'll be fine though. Technology is on our side. We will be long gone from this planet before Earth's human population hits 6 trillion. We'll have a few more Einstein's and Newton's and Da Vinci's by then. They'll figure it out or the extra-terrestrials will swoop down and save us in the nick of time. I think humans as a whole are good-natured and at our core have the best intentions for the most part. Karma (for lack of a better word) will always hold our hands as long as we don't grossly deprive our souls and brains of nourishment, and most importantly, enlightenment. Just watch and see. And no, those statistics do not frighten me.

[Shok]

Interesting topic.
There is something called the Malthusian check. You may believe this or not, but it does have some logic to it. Its like a natural check to control the population. Historically, there was the Black Plague, currently Aids/HIV etc.
The population may get that large, but who knows what can happen.


"From Thomas Malthus, one of the first economists and sociologists.
When a population becomes too large to let things run smoothly, Malthusian checks begin to kick in. These are factors that put downward pressure on population levels. For lemmings, this means jumping off cliffs. For humans, it means killing each other (a very strange behavior for any animal), disease, prostitution (meaning fewer births without sexual frustration overheat), and even, Malthus argued, homosexuality.

In malthus' view, many of these checks evolved, and are built in to human society and genetics. Homosexuality, for instance, is beneficial in a society where more births would be harmful and not beneficial. And lo and behold, it tends to flourish when it is needed most."

[metchsteekle]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmQIkDkZ7sk] Population Control [/ame]

[lunatichigh]

The growth rate will level off, S-Curve style (or worse, if anything catastrophic happened). The max carrying capacity of the earth is probably WAY below that number, probably <100 billion and closer to 20-30 billion. Those kinds of numbers aren't sustainable for obvious reasons and as societies advance they reproduce less anyways.

[R00k]

Pretty interesting topic isnt it, just to make people more aware of it im gonna show a few numbers here hope youre affraid of them. Numbers are taken from Wikipedia search for jorden, tellus or terra. It takes 41 years for us humans to double our population.

IN 800 YEARS, a BIG ASS ROCK IS GONNa FUCK earth up.
so the point of life is... "now". Otherwise, it's plan for next 100 years then, it's out of our control.
im sure on 'alpha 5' they will complete the task and secure an ambient blockade. So that the defense can warrant any preogressive debris. so save faith, life will prevail, just not yours

current state of deniaL = arrogant fucking idiots...

[Rampage]

No matter how anyone else sees it, I've experienced god in my own way, and I know no matter how bleak or unfortunate the future may look, god is on our side.

Problem is, humans are becoming a cancer to the earth, and for me, I believe in many ways we're being punished for our actions.

We don't really care for the ecosystem around us, we kill millions of animals yearly (Elephants, Whales, Sharks, Gorillas are becoming endangered).

Like Rev said, the important thing here is knowledge and technology, those things can thrust us forward. Humans also need a greater awareness of how we're effecting the ecosystem and the world, we aren't educated enough on these matters, our ignorance causes many problems. The fact we also have cruel leaders doesn't help, the Japanese government funds their own whale killing escapades in the Atlantic ocean.

In terms of human beings over populating, there always seems to be an equilibrium bouncing it back to normal levels. I suspect eventually there will be some laws banning having more than x amount of children.

[JPL]

In terms of human beings over populating, there always seems to be an equilibrium bouncing it back to normal levels. I suspect eventually there will be some laws banning having more than x amount of children.

I'm not sure such global law can be applicable worldwide.... Demographic Pressure obvious outcome is "natural selection"... there is today a big imbalance of global richness between north and south... South is willing to access water, food, medics, etc... Things that are naturally accessible for us, is a question of life for some others... And I'm not even talking about religious considerations, neither about some country leaders... that both do not help to solve the equation....

Playing the Devil's advocate, I'm afraid that despair will turn into hate, and will lead to war... worst case... though... Economic "war" is already ruling the world, we don't need bombs to enslave people...

Problem is, humans are becoming a cancer to the earth, and for me, I believe in many ways we're being punished for our actions.

Sooner or later, Earth will ask us to pay the bill for our errors, and for our lack of "respect". We are already seeing it today: climate disturbances (storms, torrentail rains, storms, drought, etc..), new diseases, or massive epidemy (HIV, flu, etc..) are the preliminary signs that Earth reminds us we have to take care of it.... We need to be all as "green" as possible in order to save what can still be saved, hoping it is not too late..

Waterworld is awaiting for us

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rev

We will be long gone from this planet before Earth's human population hits 6 trillion..

Yes most likley something will happen before that, and we can just guess what and when.

We'll have a few more Einstein's and Newton's and Da Vinci's by then.

Its possible but untill we have a new Einstein we wont know, or neither how far science will take us and how fast. Thats putting all responisibility aside hoping for the best to happen. Wich might happen we dont know.

Karma (for lack of a better word) will always hold our hands as long as we don't grossly deprive our souls and brains of nourishment,

You said it your self, as long as we donīt grossly deprive our souls and brains of nourishment. But when we cant procuce enough food what happents then is that when everyone starting to absorb bad karma?

Oil have been a hot topic for many years now and they keep finding new oil but someday we will run out of it. If we are twice as many on earth 41 years from now that mean we use twice as much oil in 41 years from now. This isnt very far into the future you and me could still be alive then.

Now we might be using something else instead then oil. But we dont have any unlimited resource well maybe sunenergy and stuff like that is close to unlimited. But its just a matter of time before we run out of more resources then just oil. Every time we double our population we double the use of all resources on earth this is why population growth is an important subject. Placing our bets on aliens to come and rescue us is ok but not enough.


And if we go back and talk about pollution again the way I described it was very simple. Earth has about 20% modern society 80% developing countries. If we double our population within the next 41 years and keep the 20%/80% it will be enough to half our pollution. But China, India and many other countries are growing and going through the same process as we did 50-100 years ago. They only look for fast economic growth and dont care much about the environment.

I have no numbers on how fast the 20/80 is changing but it mean that we will have to do better then just cut our pollution in half within the next 41 years to just stay at todays pollution rate.

As I said 41 years isnt far into the future we still might be living then and see what really happent, did we get an einstein who managed to lower our pollution with like 75%?

and most importantly, enlightenment. Just watch and see.

Enlightment with a religious theme? Well humans who are about to die often get relious then even if they never been it before in their life. However no God intervene 11 september, or when the bombs fell over Hiroshima, or to help the Jews in Auswitch. So I can only assume the following.

God if he where to exist does not care if people die or he care but cant do anything about it or that he want to but cant do anything for the greater good or he want it to happen. Either way by judging from previous event he dossent look very interested in solving our populationgrowth problem or whatever missery it will bring us.

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Shok

First time I hear about it so I googled it and found a good link to the subject Malthusian check. Malthusian catastrophe - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Its like a natural check to control the population. Historically, there was the Black Plague, currently Aids/HIV etc.
The population may get that large.

Our aim is to get better medecines, to get rid of cancer and aids and all kind of viruses that keep our population down. We spend lots of resources trying to do it wich will only speed up the growth. I dont wanna die in cancer but how good is it in the long term. As I see it giving money to cancer research is more selfish or stupid then kind.

His theory can be explained in this way too, If the Cow population grow too huge and when all grass is eaten they will starve and the cows are at their peak. The cow polulation will go down and life will start over again and repeat it self over and over. However we are not Cows, we can organise and decide our own future by forcing a stable growth. At least we have the possibility cows dont. And the effects of humans are much larger then just lack of grass.

Cows also have natural enemies, they die from diseases if we dont take care of them and controll their growth ofcourse. That natural circle is allready broken by humans we no longer have any natural enemy except our self. And if you have good karma (being a good human) You live in peace and dont make war. So all elements keeping our population in growth in check is gone because humanity work to get rid of all that is directly dangerous for us.

Whats waiting for us at the peak is suffering and death. Same suffering and death that we try to stop today when helping people who starve and send medecines. When we help immigrants who flee for their life.

All that effort will be for nothing when we are at the peak and the suffering will be much greater then it would be if we stop it now. On the other hand as rev where talking about people dont have to get bad karma. Noone can be accused for being evil, just stupid.


We cant possibly know when it will peak untill we see it, if we take the oil as an example again we should allready have been at the peak ackording to some graphs but we are not so its just wild guessing. But many belive that the growth will peak in the 21st century rather than continue to grow until it exhausted

For humans, it means killing each other - disease / homosexuality.

In malthus' view, many of these checks evolved, and are built in to human society and genetics. Homosexuality, for instance, is beneficial in a society where more births would be harmful and not beneficial. And lo and behold, it tends to flourish when it is needed most."

Ancient Rome had lots of homosexuals older men often took a younger man and adored their young fresh bodies from what I read. But we are supposed to have evolved mechanism that increase our gay factor and our will to sell sex when we are getting overpopulated?

Selling sex can be true because the unemployment might go up when we overpopulate earth and that might make more females picking up that ockupation. But I wounder if we become more gay did he have any proof or indications for that?




If anyone didnt notice it, im simply put a devil trying to promote evil deeds for the greater good. Save Earth, become gay.

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Population Control

A few of those could work for a while but the problem will repeat it self.

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Sooner or later, Earth will ask us to pay the bill for our errors, and for our lack of "respect". We are already seeing it today: climate disturbances (storms, torrentail rains, storms, drought, etc..), new diseases, or massive epidemy (HIV, flu, etc..) are the preliminary signs that Earth reminds us we have to take care of it.... We need to be all as "green" as possible in order to save what can still be saved, hoping it is not too late..

Waterworld is awaiting for us

Yes however, the middle east and north africa havent allways been a desert. If im not wrong they had huge forrests there long ago and our industry or way of living didnt make that happen so could these changes be even if humans didnt exist?

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luna

The growth rate will level off, S-Curve style (or worse, if anything catastrophic happened). The max carrying capacity of the earth is probably WAY below that number, probably <100 billion and closer to 20-30 billion. Those kinds of numbers aren't sustainable for obvious reasons and as societies advance they reproduce less anyways.

True the numbers wassnt very realistic just a way to show how fast we really grow if we keep growing at the current rate. But we can still just guess those who live will see.

In Sweden we still have a negative childbirth 1,5 child on every female or something like that. However we still increase our population due immigration so the end result is that we keep growing even with a negative child birth. While we accept these immigrants there will be more room for new growth in their homeland so in this way the growth will continnue even when societies advance and reproduce less. Advanced societies is with other words not a way alone to force a stable growth.

I dont know how old you are but if we live 82 years from now on we go through 2 doubeling periods that make the population on earth 26.556.000.000 then we got the numbers of humans you said you think Earth could substain. So if you live long enough you might actually see it happen, start drinking green tea and do yoga. =)

[lunatichigh]

If the half life of the number of remaining active quake1 players is 5 years and there are currently 100 active players, then in 40 years the community will be extinct.

If you are among the top 100 DM-ers, that would put you in the world's 99.999999th percentile (a z-score of 5.65), the IQ equivalent of 185. Since only about 1/1000 people in the general population MIGHT give the tiniest fuck, it'd be more like the 99.999th percentile out of people with a propensity for competitive FPS gaming, or a z-score of 4.3 corresponding to a "quake skill" quotient of 165 (using a 15 point standard deviation of course).

The best in world (using 10,000,000,000 to make the math easy) would be 202.

So if anyone wants to derive self esteem from getting/staying awesome at an ancient game, there you go.

[rev]

You said it your self, as long as we donīt grossly deprive our souls and brains of nourishment. But when we cant procuce enough food what happents then is that when everyone starting to absorb bad karma?

That's the idea. If we become so self-involved that we forget to eat and make sure there is food, yes, there is a higher-power at work directly telling us we are deserving of famine.

Now we might be using something else instead then oil. But we dont have any unlimited resource well maybe sunenergy and stuff like that is close to unlimited. But its just a matter of time before we run out of more resources then just oil. Every time we double our population we double the use of all resources on earth this is why population growth is an important subject. Placing our bets on aliens to come and rescue us is ok but not enough.

We can't fathom technology that we haven't come close to creating. You never know what can be invented. I doubt Alexander Graham Bell had any incling that his telegram and phone service would be used to download movies illegally. You'd be shot in the face for thinking of something that ridiculous back then. And the part where I said "or the extra-terrestrials" says it's last resort, hardly placing my bets on it. Just saying there are too many signs of the presence of God (I didn't want to make this a religious thing) in every day life to believe we only have 1 option to save ourselves and that option being "stop producing offspring and go green because what is actually going to save us (technology) is what's killing us". We're still in the very early stages of technology. Yes, it needs to be refined because as of right now our "progressive" societies have side-effects. We can fly in the air, but we're polluting what we're flying in. Kinks need to be worked out, fine, but we can't just stop driving cars and all make the switch to bicycles and rollerblades.

Enlightment with a religious theme? Well humans who are about to die often get relious then even if they never been it before in their life. However no God intervene 11 september, or when the bombs fell over Hiroshima, or to help the Jews in Auswitch. So I can only assume the following.

God if he where to exist does not care if people die or he care but cant do anything about it or that he want to but cant do anything for the greater good or he want it to happen. Either way by judging from previous event he dossent look very interested in solving our populationgrowth problem or whatever missery it will bring us.

It's not God's job to intervene everytime an old lady gets mugged or a tsunami wipes out small societies. God is not a comic book super-hero. God is what God needs to be. A crutch for someone trying to quit drinking, or emotional-security for someone facing death. Someone who listens when someone else needs to pray. At the end of the day, we are ultimately responsible. We have free-will, to destroy or create. To accomplish or fail. God is not a baby-sitter. He is a creator, designer, author and what anyone else wants to believe he is. What he is not, is a savior. We should become smart enough one day that we don't need a savior. I think we're getting closer, but still far away.